Insight

Milliman risk-related insight

18 November 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Most major equity indices experienced material losses in October, as the rising number of COVID-19 cases forced some European governments to introduce new lockdown restrictions, while emerging markets outperformed their developed market counterparts.

17 November 2020 - By Eamonn Phelan, Fred Vosvenieks, Cormac Gleeson, Eóin Stack, Gavin Maher

What are some approaches to developing a robust suite of Key Risk Indicators and what are the wider considerations for risk reporting?

17 November 2020 - By Patrick Meghen, Eoin King, Eamonn Phelan

Patrick Meghen provides an update on changes in Solvency II-related requirements, Eoin King discusses the latest on ORSA, and Eamonn Phelan presents recent Milliman thought leadership on the design, calibration and reporting of effective key risk indicators.

16 November 2020 - By Chris Harner, Chris Beck, Blake Fleisher

To balance the time-sensitive nature of the M&A process with the need to protect against acquiring a breach and destroying value, firms need to employ an efficient and repeatable cyber risk analysis strategy.

13 November 2020 - By Catherine M. Murphy-Barron, Doug Norris, Daniel J. Perlman

As chief financial officers and actuaries attempt to determine the pandemic’s impact on year-end financial statements, this article describes five issues that require additional attention.

09 November 2020 - By Martijn van Rooijen, Maarten Ruissaard, Kendall Carolissen

This paper aims to provide a comparison of capital treatments for different asset classes with the focus limited to European commercial banks and life insurers.

06 November 2020 - By Jason Fichtner

How annuity decisions are framed has a major impact on the decision to annuitize. This essay offers three ideas to help work within this dynamic.

06 November 2020 - By George A. Sandy Mackenzie

Both preretired and already retired households have always faced, in varying degrees of severity, five basic risks. This essay describes and analyzes each of the five risks in detail.

06 November 2020 - By Colin Devine, Ken Mungan

Americans entering retirement face a considerable level of risk from the triple threat of longevity, market volatility, and long-term care.

05 November 2020 - By Jonathan B. Glowacki, Judith-Anne Brelih

While unemployment rates, delinquency rates, and the percent of loans in forbearance have increased rapidly since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the housing market has remained surprisingly resilient.

27 October 2020 - By Janet Jennings, Sheila Jelinek, Suzanne Norman

While it is too soon to quantify all the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper could help women become more aware of resources and solutions to help them and their loved ones be more financially secure.

27 October 2020 - By Eamonn Phelan, Gavin Maher

What are some important considerations for risk managers in the ever changing environment of the (re)insurance industry?

21 October 2020

During the months following the February 2020 market drawdown, bonds, commodities, and stocks have all had a remarkable run, leading many investors and advisors to contemplate both the prospect of asset bubbles and the portfolio implications of those bubbles bursting.

19 October 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

The British Pound lost 3.6% and 3.9% against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen respectively, whilst weakening 1.7% against the Euro, as worries of a potential “Hard” Brexit increased the Pound’s volatility.

16 October 2020 - By Adam Schenck, Jeff Greco, Joe Becker, Ram Kelkar

The market contraction at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in Q1 2020 was the biggest test of risk-managed investment products since the 2008 financial crisis. This paper puts the downturn into historical context and examines how Milliman FRM's products performed.

15 October 2020

Markets continued their advance over the quarter as accommodative monetary policy proved to dampen the negative impact of the pandemic.

14 October 2020 - By Eamonn Phelan, Fred Vosvenieks, Cormac Gleeson, Eóin Stack, Gavin Maher

This briefing note discusses how traditional emerging risk management frameworks may not fully capture the complexity of an emerging risk event and what lessons can be learned from COVID-19.

09 October 2020

On average, October is the most volatile calendar month of the year for the stock market. This year's contentious election may help to reinforce that trend.

07 October 2020 - By Zohair Motiwalla, Zi Xiang Low, Aatman Dattani, David South

In the third quarter of 2020, Milliman refreshed a survey that establishes currently held market practice in the application of “VM-21: Requirements for Principles-Based Reserves for Variable Annuities.”

30 September 2020 - By Andrew Netter

This article takes a closer look at the COVID-19 disruption’s impact on the GSE CRT market—including subsequent changes to new issuance deal structure, pricing, and capital markets versus reinsurance allocation.

21 September 2020

What are some of the risks related to ASOP 51 disclosures?

16 September 2020 - By Neil Christy, Stuart Reynolds, Samuel Burgess

Published in 2020, the Solvency and Financial Condition Reports provides information from year-end 2019.

16 September 2020 - By Neil Cantle, Nancy P. Watkins, Peter Kingsley of The Oracle Partnership

In this article, Milliman’s Neil Cantle and Nancy Watkins, along with The Oracle Partnership’s Peter Kingsley, discuss the role that actuaries and insurers can play in tackling climate change following the coronavirus crisis.

15 September 2020 - By Nate Gorst, Jonathan B. Glowacki

Now that we are several months into the COVID-19 pandemic, sufficient data exists to analyze its effects on the mortgage market and draw conclusions on the impact this disruption will have on the mortgage marketplace for the rest of 2020 and 2021.

15 September 2020 - By Nicholas Beihoff, Ryan Lindsay, Jonathan B. Glowacki

This article provides clarity on the Adverse Market Refinance Fee and its potential impact.

14 September 2020 - By Joe Becker

Four charts that provide historical context around the condition of the U.S. labor market.

14 September 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Equity markets had a positive performance in August with all major indices making gains for the month as investors and market participants continued to show strong demand for risk assets.

08 September 2020 - By Paul M. Fedchak, Stacy Koron

Changing consumer preferences and technology are driving much of the need for innovation and, as the emergence of COVID-19 has shown, the most vulnerable parts of an industrial sector can be quickly be brought down by an unexpected event.

01 September 2020 - By Farzana Ismail, Chong Wen Ang, Chew Hou Ng

In Malaysia, most insurance and Takaful companies have already started their implementation phase of IFRS 17, but there continues to be ambiguity in interpreting several areas of the IFRS 17 standard.

25 August 2020 - By Paul Sinnott, Michael Daly, Richard W. Holloway, Wing F. Wong, Chihong An, Wen Yee Lee, Stephen H. Conwill

This report compares and contrasts the various different approaches taken to embedded value reporting across Asian markets and insurers.

24 August 2020 - By Paul Fulcher, Russell Ward

A panel of senior investment professionals joined Milliman in late July to share thoughts on the economic implications of COVID-19.

19 August 2020 - By Grzegorz Darkiewicz-Moniuszko, Ed Morgan, Michal Bobrowski, Aldo Balestreri

How are joint interest rate and credit risk for risk-neutral valuation typically offered by providers of economic scenario generators?

17 August 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Equity markets had a mixed performance in July as the pace of newly reported COVID-19 cases rose in some parts of the globe.

13 August 2020 - By Derek Newton, Ian Penfold

This report summarises the fourth annual set of Solvency and Financial Condition Reports as they relate to non-life insurers regulated in the UK or Gibraltar and sets out the results of the analyses of these reports.

12 August 2020 - By Peter H. Sun, Chunpu Song, Victor Huang, Ram Kelkar

This paper examines the hedge effectiveness of a wide range of Variable Annuity carriers.

07 August 2020 - By Rajish K. Sagoenie, Marcel Kruse

Maandelijkse publicatie van Milliman met een overzicht van de ontwikkelingen op de markten die relevant zijn voor pensioenfondsen.

04 August 2020 - By Judith-Anne Brelih, Jonathan B. Glowacki

COVID-19 continues to create economic uncertainty, putting pressure on mortgage performance in 2020 Q1 though mortgage losses are not expected to be as severe as during the global financial crisis.

27 July 2020 - By Amy Nicholson, Sophie Smyth

The Climate Financial Risk Forum have produced a guide to help firms understand the risks that arise from climate change and to provide support on how to integrate these risks into strategy and decision-making processes.

17 July 2020 - By Chris Harner, Michael C. Schmitz

The ramifications of COVID-19 on the mortgage credit risk market are still being assessed, but mortgage defaults are not expected to be as severe as during the global financial crisis, Milliman’s Mike Schmitz and Chris Harner discuss.

16 July 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Equity markets had a positive performance in June as they ended a very strong quarter by making gains for the third straight month.

08 July 2020 - By Rajish K. Sagoenie, Marcel Kruse

Maandelijkse publicatie van Milliman met een overzicht van de ontwikkelingen op de markten die relevant zijn voor pensioenfondsen.

25 June 2020 - By Manikant Prasad

This paper tries to solve the problem where a system or application, built over R, can communicate to a database with massive data volume, residing on a remote system, to retrieve only the chunks of data needed for current analysis to gain scalability and speed by leveraging the data management and querying speed of the databases.

12 June 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Equity markets continued their positive run in May as they made gains for the second month in a row.

11 June 2020 - By Stephen R. DiCenso

Even before the coronavirus, obstacles existed that slowed the uptake of insurtech solutions that targeted the reduction of customers’ losses.

26 May 2020 - By Claire Booth, Neil Cantle, Dana-Marie Dick, Ian Penfold, Natasha Singhal, Vidyut Vardhan

What metrics are most useful to insurance companies when considering the risks and impacts of climate change?

19 May 2020 - By Sheila Jelinek, Suzanne Norman, Michelle Richter

By increasing the number of female advisors, a greater number of clients can benefit from the unique perspectives and life experiences women bring to help people navigate critical financial decisions.

15 May 2020 - By Michael C. Schmitz, Jonathan B. Glowacki, Andrew Netter

This paper discusses COVID-19’s impact on the credit risk transfer market and reflects on the use of capital markets executions and reinsurance executions to meet government-sponsored enterprises’ goals.

07 May 2020 - By Alexandre Boumezoued

This white paper proposes two alternative and complementary views to the EIOPA’s final technical set of advice on the mortality and longevity shock calibration: a prospective approach in the spirit of one-year calculations and a retrospective analysis based on historical data from corrected mortality tables.

22 April 2020 - By Josh Dobiac, Bill Matczak, Jeff Greco

This white paper examines the process of constructing discount curves in accordance with Long Duration Targeted Improvements, including the criteria that should be used, and assesses the quality of the different algorithms used to build out a complete curve (including interpolation, extrapolation, and smoothing).

14 April 2020

Equity markets and high yield fixed income securities were down significantly for the quarter as investors reacted to the sudden onset of the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic consequences.

09 April 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Financial markets had a very turbulent month in March as more countries around the globe went into lockdowns amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

01 April 2020 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block is estimated to be 268 bps as of the end of March 2020, up 44 basis points from the previous month, driven by a decrease in long-term interest rates and an increase in volatility.

30 March 2020 - By Tony Dardis, Chloe Lau, Ariel Weis

The COVID-19 pandemic is raising some profound questions for risk practitioners.

30 March 2020 - By Chris Harner, David Kirk

Managing cyber risk in emerging markets such as South Africa poses unique challenges, as Milliman’s David Kirk and Chris Harner discuss.

20 March 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

Equity markets started the month strongly as they initially shrugged off concerns about the coronavirus epidemic.

16 March 2020 - By Fred Vosvenieks

Firms need to be thinking and acting with dynamism to manage the here and now of the global coronavirus pandemic and plan effectively for multiple future scenario pathways.

11 March 2020 - By Chris Harner, Chris Beck, Blake Fleisher

A cyberattack on even a mid-sized bank could ultimately cause a cascading failure of interbank funding, leading to a tipping point for a broader systemic liquidity crisis.

09 March 2020 - By Chris Harner, Chris Beck, Blake Fleisher

Cyber is proving to be the ultimate enterprise risk, encompassing not only information technology but also risks involving vendors, people, legal questions, and reputation, all while moving with stealth and a velocity that is extremely difficult to cope with.

03 March 2020 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block is estimated to be 224 bps as of the end of February 2020, up 24 basis points from the previous month, driven by a decrease in long-term interest rates.

19 February 2020 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

After a very strong performance in 2019, equity markets started 2020 on the back foot due to fears of a coronavirus outbreak and rising tensions between the US and Iran.

06 February 2020 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block is estimated to be 200 bps as of the end of January 2020.

04 February 2020 - By Judith-Anne Brelih, Jonathan B. Glowacki

The latest monthly estimate of the lifetime default risk of U.S.-backed mortgages.

22 January 2020 - By Joe Becker

In the life of the U.S. economy and its financial markets, 2019 was in many ways an exceptional year.

10 January 2020 - By Christine Jello, Suzanne Norman, Patricia L. Renzi

Women face unique obstacles in securing the necessary roadmap for retirement.

07 January 2020 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block (see Index Methodology1) is estimated to be 182 bps as of the end of December 2019, down 10 basis point from the previous month, driven by an increase in long-term interest rates.

11 December 2019 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

European equity markets had a solid performance in November as optimism grew that a “phase one” trade deal agreement may be reached between the US and China.

11 December 2019 - By Joe Becker

The global equity market in November posted its third consecutive monthly return of more than 2% and its ninth positive monthly return for 2019.

03 December 2019 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block (see Index Methodology1) is estimated to be 192 bps as of the end of November 2019, up 1 basis point from the previous month, driven by a slight decrease in long-term interest rates.

19 November 2019 - By Heerak Basu, Richard W. Holloway, Philip Jackson, Sanket Kawatkar

In recent years, capital has become more of a constraint for Indian life insurers. This survey of a majority of Indian insurers asks how they're managing risk.

19 November 2019 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi

European equity markets had a mixed performance in October.

11 November 2019 - By Joe Becker

The global equity market in October notched its second consecutive monthly return of more than 2% and its eighth positive monthly return for 2019.

11 November 2019 - By Eamon Comerford, Cormac Gleeson, Eoin King, Kevin Manning, Daniel McAleese, Matthew McIlvanna

The potential role of pooled investment funds in helping alleviate Ireland’s affordable housing crisis.

01 November 2019 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block (see Index Methodology1) is estimated to be 191 bps as of the end of October 2019, down 10 basis points from the previous month, driven by an increase in long-term interest rates.

25 October 2019 - By Josh Dobiac, Ram Kelkar, Jeanne Russo , David Schreiner

Major initiatives are under way to reform interest rate benchmarks and move away from Interbank Offered Rates (IBOR) to overnight near risk-free rates.

17 October 2019 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin

European equity markets made a strong recovery in September as the ECB cut the benchmark rate by 10 basis points and restarted its asset purchase programme in response to a weaker economic outlook.

15 October 2019 - By Joe Becker

Global equities rallied in September, recovering all of their losses from August and notching their third consecutive quarter of positive returns.

10 October 2019 - By Claire Booth, Emma Hutchinson

This paper discusses the key findings of the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority’s report titled ‘Cyber Risk for Insurers- Challenges and Opportunities’ with respect to cyber risk as an element of an insurer’s own operational risk profile.

09 October 2019

Markets were mixed for the quarter as investors digested potential risks and opportunities in the market.

03 October 2019 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block (see Index Methodology1) is estimated to be 201 bps as of the end of September 2019, down 10 basis points from the previous month, driven by an increase in long-term interest rates.

16 September 2019 - By Molly Barth, John W. Rollins

The visibility of climate’s impact on property hazard is increasingly leading individuals and their chosen leaders to ask: how might an increase in hazard affect the desirability of living in various communities, and how do we manage the socioeconomic impacts?

10 September 2019 - By Joe Becker

Global equities notched their worst month of the summer amidst heightened volatility.

05 September 2019 - By Daren Lockwood, Xiaohong Mo, Adam Schenck

The expected hedge cost for a hypothetical GLWB block (see Index Methodology1) is estimated to be 211 bps as of the end of August 2019, up 38 basis points from the previous month, driven by a decrease in long-term interest rates.

03 September 2019 - By Joe Becker

Market observers have posited in recent years that Volatility Control funds represent a focal point of instability for financial markets.

30 August 2019 - By Rachel Soich

Due to the growing instability of directors and officers coverage, insurers have their eyes on three rising risks: increased securities action lawsuits, heightened awareness to social issues, and growing cyber risks and data protection laws.

23 August 2019 - By Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin

Equity markets had a modest performance in July as the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 points for the first time in 11 years.

21 August 2019 - By Chris Beck, Chris Harner

There is a significant need in the market to transform cyber assessments, information technology metrics, and information security into the common language of risk management.

26 July 2019 - By Charlie Howell, Michael Leitschkis, Russell Ward

This paper introduces ESG Rebase, a technology capable of accurately translating a baseline risk-neutral Economic Scenario Generator file representing an entirely different set of market conditions, such as nominal yield curve, equity volatility vector or fixed interest volatility surface.

03 July 2019 - By Claire Booth, Paul Fulcher, Fred Vosvenieks, Russell Ward

This paper provides some context for a discussion of insurer liquidity risk, exploring sources of that risk and providing some examples of where it has challenged insurers in the past.

19 March 2019 - By Joy A. Schwartzman

As corporate officers reevaluate their current directors and officers coverage, it is important to thoroughly understand the type of coverage purchased and to quantify a board’s potential risk or “claim severity.”

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